The Storm Prediction Center of America has placed the entirety of Greater Lafayette under a Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday afternoon and evening.
I’m tracking a potent core of low pressure that has already generated at least 48 hours worth of inclement to Severe weather across portions of the American Southwest, Great Plains and Midwest. This same system is expected to affect us over the next 36 hours or so.
The latest forecast data is indicating that this low may supply Central Indiana with as many as four waves of precipitation ranging from scattered showers to Severe storms between now and midnight Friday morning.
Scattered rain showers and possibly a few embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms will reach our westernmost counties just after 1:30 A.M. ET.
As that initial burst of rainfall passes to our northeast around 5:30 A.M. ET, a more organized line of shower and thunderstorm activity will had already reached our southwestern counties. This second line of rainfall should push into the viewing area between 8:0 A.M. ET and 9:00 A.M. ET Thursday before exiting towards Northeastern Indiana around 12:00 P.M. ET.
Another more potent (depending upon the amount of available sunlight and heat) cluster of storms, will flow into our western counties around 12:30 P.M .ET and follow the same northeasterly track exiting our viewing area between 5:00 P.M. ET and 6:00 P.M. ET. Some of the storms associated with this cluster may become strong to Severe in nature.
Around the same time however (5:30 P.M. ET), a rapidly developing line of showers and storms will already be making its way eastward towards Indiana state line from Central Illinois.
This quarternary bout of storms will pose our greatest threat of Severe Weather Thursday. Some of the storms embedded within the well defined line may generate large hail or damaging winds.
After reaching Tippecanoe County around 7:30 P.M. ET, the last of that line should pass to the east of Greater Lafayette between 11:00 P.M .ET Thursday and 12:00 A.M. ET early Friday. As those showers and storms exit, so will our risk for Severe Weather.
The primary threats from tomorrow’s storms will be damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph along with hail larger than an inch in diameter. Unfortunately due to a moderately strong upper-level jet situated directly above tomorrow’s potent storms, isolated tornadic rotation remains a possibility for both tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Weather Team 18 will continue to keep an eye on the situation and relay new information as it becomes available.