Uncertainty Surrounds a Wintry Weekend

Good Afternoon,

We hit a high temperature today of 63° in Lafayette. Now, of course that occurred before this morning’s potent storms rolled through our viewing area and drove temperatures back into the mid to low 50s for the afternoon.

While the passage of our cold front has cleared the skies above Greater Lafayette, its associated core of low pressure will continue to pump in cool Canadian air into the Midwest over the next couple of days.

In fact, temperatures will be on a gradual decline through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend ahead! Not only are we expected to deal with more winter-like temperatures this weekend, but there are some hints towards a significant winter storm affecting the Midwest on Saturday.

Model data has fluctuated widely from day to day and model run to model run pertaining to our potential for heavy snowfall this weekend. Another core of low pressure is expected to flow east across the eastern half of the country on Saturday and Sunday.

Initial model data had the low tracking through Iowa, Northern Illinois and Wisconsin headed toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This scenario resulted in what appeared to be a defined line of thunderstorm activity late Saturday and early Sunday with a potential for Severe Weather.

By the time yesterday afternoon rolled around, the latest forecast models had drastically shifted the track of that low southward, passing through Northern Arkansas, Tennessee and into North Carolina. Not only did this push the possibility for strong storms towards the southeastern United States, but it also placed us directly in a swath of anticipated heavy snowfall.

Snowfall projections ranged between 2″ and 12″ across the viewing area with Lafayette receiving an anticipated 9.3″ of accumulation by early Sunday morning!

Thankfully, that trend of southward progression has continued over the last 24 hours; the latest model data placed the track of the weekend low across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. While it appears as though we may still receive snow chances come Saturday, the amount we receive will be significantly lower if the current trends hold.

The latest model numbers appear far more agreeable with as much as 1.5″ or so coming down across our southernmost counties and Lafayette receiving under an inch of accumulation by Sunday morning.

This is certainly a situation we’ll continue to keep our eyes on here at Weather Team 18 and let you know about any further developments as the occur.

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